Predictors of poor outcome in children with severe malaria at a tertiary health facility in Northern Nigeria

Background:
Malaria is a major cause of mortality among children.

Objective:
This study determines the clinical profile, outcome (discharge and death), and factors associated with poor outcome in children with severe malaria in a tertiary health facility in Northern Nigeria.

Methods:
We conducted a descriptive retrospective study of all children (≤14 years) admitted with severe malaria based on positive malaria parasite on thick film and or rapid diagnostic test and the World Health Organization guideline for severe malaria. We extracted relevant data from patients’ case files and departmental records and analyzed with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for Windows, version 20.0. (IBM Corp, Armonk, NY).

Results:
A total of 483 children with severe malaria were admitted with median age interquartile range of 4.0 (2.5–8.0) years. Males were 261 (54.0%). Underfives were 258 (53.4%). Common forms of presentation were cerebral malaria 169 (35.0%), prostration (102; 21.1%), and multiple convulsion (86; 17.8%). Cerebral malaria and prostration were significantly higher among children aged 5 years and older. The mortality rate was 4.3% (21). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that impaired consciousness (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 8.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.345, 30.484), hypoglycemia (aOR: 21.4, 95% CI: 2.766, 165.410), presence of two or more components (aOR: 4.5, 95% CI: 1.630, 12.522), and duration of hospitalization of 24 h or less (aOR: 4.6, 95% CI: 1.621, 12.782) were independent predictors of poor outcome.

Conclusion:
Our study showed that cerebral malaria was the most common form of severe malaria with a significant burden in children above 5 years. The presence of impaired consciousness, hypoglycemia, multiple components, and duration of <24 h on admission were predictive of death.