Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major
public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan
Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the
transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims
to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by
examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are
examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory,
while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To
validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda,
Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical
region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that
the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by
seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending
on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both
schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly
mean temperatures within the range of 22e27 C create favorable conditions for the
development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers.
On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 C have an
adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected
that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of
parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will
contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This
study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by
temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These
findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and
prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various
factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures
to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address
schistosomiasis transmission patterns.